Evaluation of the role of the current network of protected areas in conserving cold adapted predators of north america under climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070
Pandey, Ranjit
Citations
Abstract
Climate change has determined shifts in distributions of species and changing climates in the near future are likely to affect many species. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to estimate the potential future distributions of apex predator and mesopredator species above 45° N in North America. We projected the niche models of apex predators and mesopredators on future climate datasets based on three Global Circulation Models and four greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We report average change in potential distributions of species for 2050 and 2070 at the extent of North America, as well as at subcontinental extents above 45° N and below 45 °N, to compare climate change effects on species’ distributions in colder and warmer regions of the continent, respectively. Under future climate scenarios, the potential distributions of all studied predators decreased at lower latitudes (below 45° N) and increased at higher latitudes (above 45° N) in North America. Furthermore, the potential distribution of the majority of apex predators decreased compared to that of mesopredator species. Estimate of change in potential distributions within current protected area system showed that all predator species, except for P. lotor in 2050, will have a higher percentage of potential distribution within protected areas both in 2050 and 2070. Species richness was predicted to increase at higher latitudes.